The Battle for Air Superiority: NGAD vs. Navy's F-A-XX

Could the days of traditional fighter jets be numbered in the age of drones and advanced missile systems? As we explore this provocative question, join us on the Pilot Photog Podcast, where we dissect the competition between the Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program and the Navy's F-A-XX initiative. The Air Force's NGAD program, while promising revolutionary advancements, grapples with budget constraints and an uncertain future. On the other hand, the Navy's F-A-XX is unexpectedly gaining traction, challenging preconceived notions of its progress and viability. Through this fascinating lens, we scrutinize the very essence of air combat evolution and consider whether the NGAD is truly essential in the modern military landscape.

In our latest episode, we venture into the strategic timelines and necessities of these cutting-edge aircraft programs, teasing out the possibilities of which will soar into operational status first. Will the Navy's momentum shift the balance of air superiority, or will the Air Force's ambitious plans reign supreme despite financial hurdles? Tune in as we engage with these critical questions, balancing cost, capability, and strategic vision to forecast the next era of aerial warfare. Don't miss out on this thought-provoking discussion—subscribe to the Pilot Photog Podcast and explore more aviation insights on our YouTube channel.

Chapters

• 0:00 Future of US Military Aircraft Programs
• 14:22 Comparing Navy and Air Force Aircraft

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Welcome aviation and history enthusiasts to the Pilot Photog podcast. I'm Tog, your host, private pilot, professional photographer, youtube content creator and your guide through the thrilling world of military aircraft. Whether you're a diehard aviation fan or just love a good story from the skies, you've landed in the right place. Each episode, we take flight into the fascinating tales of military aircraft, the heroes who flew them and the incredible technology that keeps pushing the boundaries of what's possible in the skies. We'll explore historic battles, modern advancements and the little-known stories that shaped aviation history. And that's not all. As a scale model aircraft enthusiast and a creator of stunning computer animations, I'll bring these stories to life, giving you a unique perspective on the aircraft we discuss. Every airplane has a story. It's not just a podcast, it's an experience, don't forget. You can find us on all podcasting platforms. But before we take off, here's a quick pre-flight checklist for you, our amazing listeners. If you enjoy our journey through aviation history, please take a moment to leave a review. Your feedback helps us climb higher and reach more aviation enthusiasts like you. So whether you're prepping for takeoff on a long cross-country flight or just relaxing at home, make sure to subscribe to the Pilot Photog podcast for your regular fix of aviation history and stories. All right, strap in and adjust your aviator glasses, because we're about to embark on another high-flying adventure. Welcome aboard the Pilot Photog Podcast, pilotphotogcom.

Speaker 1: 1:53

Today's video is brought to you by War Thunder. Could the US Navy outpace the Air Force in developing the next generation of fighter jets? While everyone assumed the Air Force had the lead in the race for six generation fighters, there's a surprising twist. The Navy might be speeding ahead while the Air Force may be pumping the brakes, but why? In this video, we're gonna explore three key questions. How did the Air Force, with its ambitious next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD, program, end up hitting major roadblocks? After all, they were the ones who kickstarted the race, promising revolutionary advances in stealth speed, range and survivability. But now they're facing an enemy that's proving difficult to beat and, some say, is undefeated. Meanwhile, the Navy's F-A-X-X program, which many thought was dead in the water, is suddenly gaining serious momentum. What exactly revived this program and how could it overtake the Air Force's plans? And finally, what if the future of air combat doesn't even involve traditional fighters? There's a real possibility that the Air Force might not need a new fighter at all. Could drones, advanced missile systems or other technology be the real future. Stick around and find out. Let's start by breaking down how the Air Force's NGAD a project that is so ambitious if it can deliver on all its promises will make today's F-22 Raptor look like a Cessna 172.

Speaker 1: 3:38

The Air Force's next-generation air dominance program was designed to be the ultimate air superiority platform and is intended to serve throughout the remainder of the 21st century. The NGAD's design goals include many cutting-edge advancements, including highly advanced sensors, powerful new engines and the ability to work seamlessly with unmanned drones. The NGAD is set to revolutionize aerial warfare, but as the program has moved forward, it's now facing a nearly undefeated and timeless enemy money. The cost estimates for each NGAD aircraft have soared to an eye-watering $200 to $300 million per plane. This steep price tag has become a major obstacle, especially given the ever-tightening US defense budget. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has acknowledged these financial challenges and, as a result, has hit pause on the program. Kendall has stated that the NGAD's current costs may simply be too high and the Air Force needs to reevaluate before proceeding. A review has been ordered, which should wrap up in the next coming months. The findings of this review will be crucial in determining whether the NGAD continues as originally planned or undergoes significant modifications.

Speaker 1: 4:58

Knowing these budget concerns, one of the biggest issues the Air Force now faces is how to balance cost with capability. Lowering the aircraft's price could mean cutting back on some of the very features that make it revolutionary, such as its range and payload capacity, for example. One cost-cutting proposal involves moving from a twin-engine design to a single-engine model and a smaller airframe. While these changes could reduce expenses, it would also limit the aircraft's ability to fly long distances without frequent refueling, a critical factor given the global nature of the Air Force's mission. In a future conflict, such as one in the Pacific, the Air Force would need to operate over vast distances, often without nearby refueling bases.

Speaker 1: 5:45

To address this challenge, the Air Force has proposed the development of a new air refueling system called the Next Generation Air Refueling System, or NGAS, a stealthy tanker designed to support NGAD missions. However, this only adds another layer of complexity and more cost to an already expensive project. Still, you could make the argument that NGAS would benefit not just the NGAD fighter but many other Air Force and Navy aircraft, as the current tanker fleet is getting rather long in the tooth. On top of all this, the Air Force is also developing a 6th generation bomber, better known as the B-21 Raider. Like the NGAD, the Raider is extremely ambitious and expensive, but it's already flying, with several prototypes built. More on the Raider in a moment. Ultimately, the Air Force is at a crossroads. It must decide whether the NGAD's ambitious goals are worth the price tag or if it needs to scale back the program to something more financially sustainable. Either way, the future of the NGAD is uncertain and the outcome of this review will have a profound impact on the Air Force's strategy moving forward.

Speaker 1: 7:01

Then there's the Navy. While the Air Force is seemingly hitting the brakes on its NGAD program, the US Navy is going full speed ahead with its own 6th generation fighter project, known as the F-AXX. Designed to replace the aging F-A-18 Super Hornets and E-A-18 Growlers, the F-AXX promises to bring significant improvements in range sensors and electronic warfare capabilities. Additionally, the carrier-capable F-AXX will offer a new level of integration between manned and unmanned systems, making it a core element of the Navy's strategy for the 2030s and beyond. The Chief of Naval Operations, admiral Lisa Franchetti, has emphasized that the F-AXX will be essential for maintaining the Navy's long-range strike capabilities, particularly in the Pacific theater. With advanced sensors and enhanced lethality, the F-AXX will be designed to operate in contested environments, giving the Navy an edge in future high-tech warfare. It will also be built to work closely with unmanned systems, highlighting the Navy's increasing reliance on autonomous platforms for intelligence gathering, surveillance and even combat roles.

Speaker 1: 8:19

Quick side note many of you will comment on my concept bottle's use of canards. These have been shown in several depictions from aerospace companies that are bidding for the FAXX contract and while it could be just a placeholder design, maybe the canards will help with carrier takeoffs and landings and the trade-off and stealth is deemed worth it. Time will tell and speaking of those aerospace companies, the Navy is now in the final stages of selecting a contractor for the faxx. Boeing, lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are all competing for the coveted contract and a decision is expected in the near future. Admiral Franchetti has made it clear that securing the right partner for this program is a top priority, despite some Congressional concerns about the program's costs.

Speaker 1: 9:04

Earlier this year, the Navy delayed nearly $1 billion in funding for the F-AXX, shifting the focus towards immediate operational readiness. However, this has not slowed down the Navy's long-term commitment to fielding the F-AXX as a critical piece of its future air strategy. Today, the Navy appears to be all in on the F-AXX as it tries to squeeze the last few years out of the venerable Super Hornets. And yes, the F-35Cs are joining the fleet in growing numbers, but the F-AXX looks to fill the role of long-range striker and fleet defender that was held by the infamous F-14 Tomcat Since 6th Generation is all about the future of warfighting. We do have to take a moment and consider if every fighter needs to be piloted by a human. With the advent of drone warfare, humans are being taken farther and farther out of the kill chain, and in some ways that makes sense. This brings us back to the NGAD. While the NGAD program was designed to be the Air Force's next generation fighter, there is a growing possibility that the Air Force may not need it after all, why?

Speaker 1: 10:10

The development of the B-21 Raider may offer an alternative that could fundamentally shift how the Air Force approaches air dominance. Although the B-21 Raider is designed primarily as a stealth bomber, its potential capabilities go far beyond traditional bombing missions. One of the most intriguing possibilities is using a B-21 as a flying drone controller. In this scenario, the B-21 wouldn't just carry out bombing runs. It would act as a command hub directing swarms of unmanned fighter-sized drones. These drones could engage enemy aircraft, gather intelligence and even perform electronic warfare missions, all while being coordinated from the safety of the raider, which would remain at a standoff distance. In this way, you can think of the B-21 Raider as a quarterback, and although no one will ever say raiders and good, quarterbacking in the same sentence, the Air Force may just find an exception to that rule.

Speaker 1: 11:05

The advantages of this approach are significant. Quarterbacking in the same sentence. The Air Force may just find an exception to that rule. The advantages of this approach are significant. First, these drones would cost a fraction of what a fully manned NGAD fighter would, potentially bringing down the massive costs that are threatening the NGAD program.

Speaker 1: 11:18

As we've mentioned, the NGAD is looking to cost between $200 and $300 million per plane, a figure that is becoming harder and harder for the Air Force to justify under budgetary constraints. In contrast, unmanned drones are far cheaper to build and maintain and, because they are uncrewed, the loss of a drone in combat is far less devastating, both financially and operationally. Additionally, by relying on the B-21 as a central command unit, the Air Force could deploy drones over vast distances without the need for complex logistics to support, refueling and maintaining a fleet of manned fighters. The B-21's long-range and stealth capabilities allow it to remain deep behind friendly lines while controlling the drone fleet from a safe distance. This approach also offers a strategic advantage in terms of flexibility A fleet of drones could rapidly be reconfigured depending on the mission at hand, whether it's air superiority, reconnaissance or electronic warfare, without the need to commit expensive, highly specialized fighters like the NGAD. It also opens up the possibility of deploying large numbers of drones simultaneously, overwhelming enemy defenses through sheer numbers, a tactic that's far more difficult with manned aircraft due to the risk to human pilots.

Speaker 1: 12:32

In this evolving scenario, the Air Force could shift its focus away from developing the NGAD as a centerpiece of its air superiority strategy. Instead, it might lean on the B-21 Raider's versatility as a drone controller, allowing for a cheaper, more flexible and potentially more effective combat solution. The Raider, combined with a swarm of drones, could very well represent the future of US air power, one that is emphasizing technology, automation and cost efficiency over traditional manned fighters. With these developments in mind, the Air Force faces a critical decision Does it continue down the path of the costly NGAD program or does it pivot towards a more innovative, drone-centered approach? The answer to this question could reshape the future of air warfare as we know it.

Speaker 1: 13:16

Interestingly, both the Navy and the Air Force have been closely monitoring each other's progress as they develop their prospective sixth-generation fighters. The Navy has been learning from the Air Force's NGAD program, especially in areas like advanced sensors and unmanned platform integration. There's also growing speculation that the FAXX and the NGAD could share certain core technologies, such as the next-generation engines being developed as part of the Air Force's Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion, or NGAP, program. This kind of cross-service collaboration could not only accelerate the development of both platforms, but also help mitigate some of the costs and technological risks that come with pushing the boundaries of military aviation. In the coming months, as the Navy locks in a contractor and continues development, the F-AXX is set to play a critical role in shaping the Navy's future air combat capabilities, and it's worth mentioning that the Navy could use the F-AXX as a mini-raider or a drone controller that would control large swarms of fighter-size or smaller drones.

Speaker 1: 14:22

What do you think? Will the Navy's F-AXX become operational before the Air Force's NGAD? Will the NGAD even be needed? Thanks for listening to the Pilot Photog Podcast. Be sure to subscribe to this podcast and the YouTube channel as well. I will leave links in the description. Slash show notes below. Now you know.