Budget Battles and Strategic Skies: The Future of the F-35 Lightning

The episode discusses the current challenges facing the F-35 Lightning II, highlighting potential budget cuts and their impact on the future of the most expensive weapons system in U.S. history. We explore the aircraft's technological issues and the varied international investments it garners, questioning its long-term viability.

• Overview of the F-35’s history and the Joint Strike Fighter program 
• Discussion of budget pressures and operational performance challenges 
• Economic impact of the F-35 on the U.S. and allied nations 
• Possible future scenarios for the F-35: reduced production, software fixes, or full commitment 
• Examination of international reactions and commitments to the F-35 program 
• Summary of geopolitical implications surrounding F-35 investments

Chapters

• 0:00 The Future of the F-35 Lightning
• 11:41 The Future of Fighter Jets

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

The F-35 Lightning was built to dominate the skies, but what if its greatest enemy isn't another fighter jet but a budget spreadsheet? We've seen it before Cutting-edge programs grounded or severely cut back, not by enemy fire, but by Washington's red pen. And now the most expensive weapons system in US history the F-35, might be next. Enter the Department of Government Efficiency, yes, doge, the watchdog that is now scrutinizing Pentagon spending. And guess what's at the top of their list? The F-35. It's the most produced fifth-generation fighter in history, winning contracts worldwide Sorry, not sorry, su-57. But with a lifetime cost estimated at over $2 trillion. One big question remains Is the F-35 a necessary ongoing investment or a money pit? In this video, we'll break down how budget cuts, audits and mounting financial pressure could change the future of America's premier stealth fighter. Could the F-35 be the next victim of cost cutting? Let's take a look and find out. To understand how we got here, we have to start by taking a closer look at the F-35 itself.

Speaker 1: 1:20

All the way back in the 90s, as the Cold War was ending and the US felt the need to pay the peace dividend, the thought was that military budgets didn't need to be as big anymore. Enter the Joint Strike Fighter, or JSF, a program envisioned by the US and its allies to create a single low-cost fighter that would fill many roles. This concept aircraft would perform air-to-air and air-to-ground jobs for the Air Force, fly off of carriers for the Navy and take off and land vertically for the Marines. Oh, and it would also be exportable to allies, unlike the F-22. More on the Raptor in a minute. What came out of the JSF program was, of course, the F-35 Lightning. Instead of one airplane to perform all these roles, three variations or variants of the same base airplane would be used. These, of course, are the Air Force's F-35A, the Marine F-35B and the Navy's F-35C. And, by the way, these are all stealth aircraft, meaning they use advanced materials and are shaped to reduce their radar signature, making them harder to detect. The military guys call this low observable. So far, so good, right? Well, you see there were a couple of problems. Trying to get one base airframe to do everything is really hard and it turns out very expensive.

Speaker 1: 2:43

On top of stealth, the F-35 also promised sensor fusion. This is the ability to network or connect with all sorts of units on the battlefield, from other jets to ships, ground units and even satellites. The software required to run. These systems made the F-35 basically a flying data center. The F-35 basically a flying data center, and some estimates show that there are about 8 million lines of code in the program. Talk about a debugging nightmare. Now, did I mention expensive?

Speaker 1: 3:15

The F-35 has been an aircraft of many firsts, some great and some not so great. That expensive part, well, that also came with many delays and challenges. In the early 2000s, there was even talk of canceling the program as costs continued to pile up. However, at some point in the late 2010s, the F-35 program turned the corner and is now producing new fighters at a rate better than most military aircraft programs. Still, budget cuts are not something that's unique to the Lightning. Several high-profile programs have been cut in the past, including the F-22 Raptor, which had its production run cut back from 700 jets to just under 200, and the Comanche attack helicopter, which never even made it into production. Anyone else remember that Commodore 64 game?

Speaker 1: 4:01

Getting back to the Lightning, the F-35 program has been facing some serious hurdles that could put its future at risk, especially with these budget cuts looming. One of the biggest challenges it's facing is its engine performance and cooling system. Over 16 years ago, engineers realized that the jet's design wouldn't meet cooling demands, yet no major modifications were made. This has led to increased strain on the aircraft's power system, creating concerns about long-term reliability and performance. Now there have been some attempts to address these engine issues, with an upgrade being settled on. I've done a whole video about the F-35's engine problems and solutions. You can check that one out after this one Link in the description below.

Speaker 1: 4:44

Another major issue facing the F-35 is the Technology Refresh 3 or TR-3 upgrade, which is supposed to improve the F-35's computing power, displays and processing capabilities. Again, this is why the F-35 needs those better engines or better cooling to accommodate these new software upgrades and enhanced power requirements. However, when it comes to TR3, software bugs and hardware production delays have pushed back the timeline. Originally, tr3 was expected to be ready by April of 2023. However, full operational testing has now been postponed until at least mid to late 2026.

Speaker 1: 5:20

These delays have ripple effects. Right now, only about 51% of the F-35 fleet is mission capable, falling well below the Pentagon's goal of 65%. With Lockheed Martin already reporting major financial losses from these setbacks and budget watchdogs like Doge pushing for spending cuts, the F-35 program is facing serious pressure. The big question now becomes can the lightning survive, or will cost concerns finally bring it down? Still, it's not all doom and gloom.

Speaker 1: 5:49

By many measures, the F-35 is a success, especially when you look at other fifth generation fighters. For example, from an economy standpoint, an independent panel found that the annual economic impact of the F-35 program is $72 billion and has created over 250,000 advanced manufacturing jobs in the US and its partner nations. On top of this, over 1,100 aircraft have been delivered to 20 program participants that span the globe. This makes the F-35 the most produced fifth generation fighter ever. But delivering an aircraft is only part of the story. There are also over 2,700 trained pilots, over 17,000 maintainers, and the Lightning fleet has flown nearly 1 million hours since the program began. Quite frankly, it's hard to argue against those numbers. However, when it comes to spending overall, let's just say that the DoD has had some concerns. Case in point the DoD has never passed an audit since 2018, and last year's audit cost $178 million and involved about 1,700 auditors. Now look, I understand you can't expose all the financials due to national security. There are many secret projects that need to remain hidden to ensure the success, but it never hurts to review spending and ensure that our taxpayer dollars are being put to the best possible use.

Speaker 1: 7:13

When it comes to the future of the F-35 program, the way I see it is, there are three possible outcomes. Outcome number one reduced production. In this scenario, the F-35 program is scaled back, leading to less than the originally planned amount of fighters being produced. This would be similar to what happened with the F-22 program, but hopefully, if this does come to pass, it will not be as much of a cut. Remember that the Air Force alone plans for 1,700 F-35As. So time will tell. Outcome number two software fixes instead of hardware upgrades. To me, this is the least likely option, given the already mentioned engine power and heating issues. But you never know, this option would look like this a code freeze on new software features for the Lightning, which ultimately would make it obsolete before its time. Remember the Lightning is projected to serve until 2070 and possibly even beyond that. So again, not a great plan, in my opinion, which brings us to option three full commitment.

Speaker 1: 8:15

Despite cost concerns, at the end of the day, the F-35 may be deemed too essential to abandon or reduce. However, it's important to point out that both the Navy and the Air Force have competing programs for their next generation aircraft. The Navy, of course, is working on the F-AXX. I've done a video about that program and you can check that one out after this one. Meanwhile, the Air Force is underway in developing and producing their sixth generation B-21 Raider bomber, while at the same time putting the next generation Air Dominance, or NGAD fighter on hold. However, china's J-36 taking to the skies could put pressure on the USAF to restart the NGAD program. And yes, I've done videos on all three of these aircraft More links in the description for you to check out later. In fact, I'll make a playlist so you can binge watch it whenever you have time.

Speaker 1: 9:03

Getting back to the lightning, let's also remember that the F-35 isn't just an American fighter. It's a global program with over a dozen allied nations buying in. But while some countries are doubling down on their investment, others appear to be scaling back, reconsidering or even looking at alternatives. This raises a critical question. If the US allies start pulling back, does that make it even harder to justify the F-35's ongoing enormous price tag? You're probably wondering who's buying less? One of the biggest recent shakeups came from Canada, which initially planned to buy 88 F-35s but took years to make a final decision. Canada previously had flirted with Boeing's F-A-18 Super Hornet as a cheaper alternative, only to finally commit to the Lightning in 2023. Even so, canadian officials have hinted that budget constraints might limit future purchases, raising concerns about long-term sustainment costs.

Speaker 1: 9:59

Then there's Germany, a country that's modernizing its air force, but with a split approach. While they are buying a limited number of F-35s to carry nuclear weapons under NATO's nuclear sharing agreement, they're also heavily investing in the Future Air Combat System, or FCAS, a European-built sixth-generation fighter program. This, of course, raises the possibility that they could eventually move away from the F-35 altogether. Other countries like Belgium and Denmark have committed to the F-35, but are keeping orders relatively small, opting for just enough jets to modernize their forces without fully replacing their other aircraft. So who's betting big? On the flip side, other nations are going all in, hopefully not the way the cowboys did last year. Japan has placed massive orders planning to operate over 147 F-35s, including a mix of conventional F-35As and carrier-capable F-35Bs. This move aligns with Japan's push to develop a more flexible air force, particularly as tensions with China continue to rise. Meanwhile, down under, australia is another strong backer, with over 70 F-35s already in service and plans to expand its fleet. The country sees the Lightning as a cornerstone of its air power, especially as it integrates with American and allied forces in the Pacific. Then there's Poland, which is rapidly modernizing its military and has ordered 32 F-35As. For Poland, the F-35 is a game changer, giving them a stealth advantage over Russia's older generation fighters and reinforcing NATO's presence in Eastern Europe.

Speaker 1: 11:41

We then have to consider if export restrictions could hold the F-35 back. Not every country can get their hands on an F-35, though. Unlike some American fighter jets that have been widely exported, the F-35 is still limited to US allies. Nations like India, taiwan and Saudi Arabia have shown interest in the jet, but have been blocked due to geopolitical concerns. This creates an interesting challenge. While restricting sales keeps the F-35 exclusive to friendly nations, it also limits how much money the program can bring in. More buyers would, of course, mean lower cost per unit, but the risk of advanced technology falling into the wrong hands means that it's not likely to change anytime soon. So we have to ask does international demand keep the F-35 program alive?

Speaker 1: 12:29

One of the biggest arguments in favor of keeping the F-35 production going is that so many countries have already invested in it. If the US were to suddenly scale back production, it wouldn't just affect the Pentagon. It would create logistical headaches for dozens of allied air forces. That's a big reason why many analysts believe the F-35 is simply too big to fail. Of course, the other side of that coin is, with budget cuts looming, international demand alone might not be enough to keep the program fully intact. Again, if more countries reduce their orders or start looking at future alternatives like the UK-led Tempus or European-led FCAS program, or even stealth drones, the long-term sustainability of the F-35 could be in question.

Speaker 1: 13:13

At the end of the day, the Lightning II is still the dominant fifth-gen fighter in the world, but as new technologies emerge and budgets tighten, the real test will be whether it can hold on to that position in the decades to come. Without a doubt, the F-35 program will undergo some scrutiny like it never has before, and again, as the most expensive weapon system in history, it's going to get grilled by reviewers. On top of this, there's also questions about manned fighters even being necessary in large numbers. You could say that the rise of drones and their effectiveness has really made the case for swarms of less expensive, attritable drones dominating the skies, with a few manned fighters controlling the action from a distance. The F-35 Lightning will it survive cuts by Doge? We'll have to see, and now you know.